Kevin D. Duncan

"Linear Hypothesis Tests for Fixed Effects with Serially Correlated Panels"

"Do Nudges Induce Safe Driving? Evidence from Dynamic Message Signs" with Sher Afghan Asad

"Nonparametric Gravity" with Reesman

U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) Office of Economics Working Paper

"The Impact of Federal Policy Implementation Frictions on Commercial Real Estate Market Dynamics" with William M. Doerner and Michael J. Seiler

Journal of Real Estate Research, forthcoming (Published online August 31, 2026, Pages 1–40).

During periods of financial stress, policymakers may take actions to stabilize credit conditions, but it is not always clear whether these interventions will transmit successfully into real asset markets. This study examines the U.S. Treasury's Capital Purchase Program (CPP), which provided capital injections to banks during the Great Financial Crisis, to evaluate whether this public support transmitted to commercial real estate (CRE) markets. Using county-level panel data, we define treatment as local exposure to CPP through bank participation. Outcome measures track establishment and employment dynamics. Existing studies typically evaluate CPP through lending activity or aggregate employment outcomes. Non-random program participation and differential pre-treatment trends limit the validity of standard difference-in-differences approaches. To address these concerns, we estimate causal effects using a synthetic control framework that accounts for staggered treatment timing and spatial exposure to nearby credit markets. There are limited effects from CPP exposure. Short-run impacts dissipate over time and there is little evidence of spillovers. The findings indicate that CPP funds supported balance sheet activities but did not expand credit, which constrained transmission to CRE markets. This highlights how financial stabilization priorities can, even when effective in preventing systemic distress, mute transmission into real asset markets.

"How Relative Marginal Tax Rates Affect Establishment Entry at State Borders" with Yulong Chen, Liyuan Ma, and Peter Orazem

Small Business Economics, Volume 60, Issue 3, March 2023, Pages 1081–1103. (Previously circulated as "Impacts of Taxes on Firm Entry Rates along State Borders" with Georgeanne M. Artz and Peter F. Orazem).

This paper studies the impact of marginal capital income, property, sales, and income tax rates on establishment entry. We apply border discontinuity analysis and test relative establishment entry rates in the same industry on either side of state borders. Establishments are significantly more likely to enter on the side of the border with the lower marginal tax rates with property taxes being the most important. Results are used to identify the largest border differences in start-ups due to tax structure and to rank the most distortionary tax structures overall. The greatest distortion in start-ups due to tax rates is at the Wyoming-Idaho with 8.6% lower probability of start-ups on the Idaho side due to tax disadvantages relative to Wyoming. The most distortionary tax structure is Rhode Island’s at 14.2% lower probability of entry, but it is not as heavily disadvantaged at the border because its neighbor, Connecticut, has the third most distortionary tax structure.

"Do State Business Climate Indicators Explain Relative Economic Growth at State Borders?" with Georgeanne M. Artz, Kevin D. Duncan, Arthur P. Hall, Peter F. Orazem

Journal of Regional Science, Volume 56, Issue 3, June 2016, Pages 395–419.

This study submits eleven business climate indexes to tests of their ability to predict economic performance on either side of state borders. Our results show that most business climate indexes have no ability to predict relative economic growth regardless of how growth is measured. Some are negatively correlated with relative growth. Many are better at reporting past growth than at predicting the future. In the end, the most predictive business climate index is the Grant Thornton Index which was discontinued in 1989.