Kevin D. Duncan
Working Papers
"Linear Hypothesis Tests for Fixed Effects with Serially Correlated Panels"
"Do Nudges Induce Safe Driving? Evidence from Dynamic Message Signs" with Sher Afghan Asad
Published Papers
"The Impact of Federal Policy Implementation Frictions on Commercial Real Estate Market Dynamics" with William M. Doerner and Michael J. Seiler, forthcoming Journal of Real Estate Research
"How Relative Marginal Tax Rates Affect Establishment Entry at State Borders" with Yulong Chen, Liyuan Ma, and Peter Orazem, Small Business Economics.
Previously circulated as "Impacts of Taxes on Firm Entry Rates along State Borders" with Georgeanne M. Artz and Peter F. Orazem
This paper studies the impact of marginal capital income, property, sales, and income tax rates on establishment entry. We apply border discontinuity analysis and test relative establishment entry rates in the same industry on either side of state borders. Establishments are significantly more likely to enter on the side of the border with the lower marginal tax rates with property taxes being the most important. Results are used to identify the largest border differences in start-ups due to tax structure and to rank the most distortionary tax structures overall. The greatest distortion in start-ups due to tax rates is at the Wyoming-Idaho with 8.6% lower probability of start-ups on the Idaho side due to tax disadvantages relative to Wyoming. The most distortionary tax structure is Rhode Island’s at 14.2% lower probability of entry, but it is not as heavily disadvantaged at the border because its neighbor, Connecticut, has the third most distortionary tax structure. Working Paper // Previous Version Working Paper
"Do State Business Climate Indicators Explain Relative Economic Growth at State Borders?" with Georgeanne M. Artz, Kevin D. Duncan, Arthur P. Hall, Peter F. Orazem; Journal of Regional Science, Volume 56 Issue 3; June 2016; Pages 395-419
This study submits eleven business climate indexes to tests of their ability to predict economic performance on either side of state borders. Our results show that most business climate indexes have no ability to predict relative economic growth regardless of how growth is measured. Some are negatively correlated with relative growth. Many are better at reporting past growth than at predicting the future. In the end, the most predictive business climate index is the Grant Thornton Index which was discontinued in 1989. Working Paper // Published Version